Friday, 3 October 2008

Financial Eugenics: The Paulson Plan for Survivor Bias

As I write this I don’t know the outcome of the attempt to ram through legislation for looting the US Treasury of $700 billion before the end of the Bush administration. I suspect that Congress will force the passage of the bill in some form because the media and political narrative on the necessity of the measure is unremitting and so horribly biased.

No alternatives will be considered.

No constraints on the unilateral executive authority of Hank Paulson will be considered.

No assurances that funds will be used to unlock credit markets or promote lending to the real economy (as opposed to the financial robber barons) will be considered.

Instead, the bill will get laden with an additional 300 pages of pork to sway the dissenters, adding to the tab imposed on the American taxpayer.

Having listened to all 42 minutes of the late night Treasury briefing of investment banks on Sunday, there is no doubt in my mind that this legislation represents the sort of federal largesse for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and JPMorgan Chase that the Iraq war provided for Halliburton and Blackwater.

The most cynical moment in the call is when the Treasury official confirms, ”our preference would be to help the healthy banks become even healthier” rather than helping troubled banks or illiquid banks.

America is now a centrally planned economy where the Treasury will determine which firms survive and prosper through allocation of scarce capital to an undercapitalised financial sector.

Clearly what is going on here has nothing to do with kick starting the credit markets or stabilising the equity markets or restoring depositor confidence in banks. (Treasury official: “No provision in the legislation that mandates re-lending.”) What is going on here is a blatant attempt to provide government funds to a select cadre of firms (not all banks) which are chosen to be the survivors feasting off the carcasses of their less fortunate and less well-connected brethren as the downturn intensifies in the years to come.

The crash in equities will still happen. The debt deflation of the economy leading to mass commercial and consumer credit defaults will still happen. The collapse of many national, regional and local financial institutions will still happen. The bankruptcy of many municipalities and shortfalls in state budgets will still happen.

This bill is about engineering survivor bias to friends of the Bush administration so that they profit disproportionately from the collapse of these markets using the funds provided by the taxpayer via the unreviewable and unconditional authority of the Secretary of the Treasury.

The basic plan is to set up a federal money laundering operation. Bad assets come in, get laundered by the Treasury and put in a new AAA “wrapper” (as it’s termed on the call), and good assets go out, issued as Treasury guaranteed securities. Whether the final value of the legislation this week is $700 billion or $150 billion is irrelevant as long as the laundering operation can accommodate the throughput, as that number is only a cap on total extensions at any one time.

The SEC will support the plan and survivor bias by relaxing FASB 157 on mark to market accounting. If there is no agreement on what an asset is worth, it is worth whatever the firm holding it says in its Level 3 accounts or the Treasury Secretary accepts in buying it.

The Federal Reserve will support the plan by relaxing the definition of “control stake” in US banks and bank holding companies to allow secretive cabals to hold through private equity and offshore hedge funds. No one knows the beneficial owners of these ill-transparent private equity investors, and so it is the ideal way to reward loyal and helpful insiders, legislators and officials – as well as cede further ownership of American assets to foreign stakeholders who would be politically unacceptable if publicly acknowledged. Many foreign creditors are irate at the losses their funds, banks and pensioners have sustained from investments in the United States, and this plan provides a secret way to buy them off and keep them lending and investing as their own economies are roiled by the deflation to come.

For the past year the survivor bias has been orchestrated from the Federal Reserve, with its extension of innovative credit facilities and selectively engineered rescues or forced mergers. That has been very useful, but that well is now dry. The Fed has no more good assets to trade for the bad assets the banks can offer. And the supply of bad assets just keeps growing as market illiquidity spreads further from the core of the mortgage backed securities market. Instability is now leading to a realistic threat that the Fed and Treasury could lose control of the deflationary process.

Part of the reason the Paulson Plan is so attractive is that it recapitalises the Fed by promoting the unwinding of repos and lending facilities which left the Fed holding toxic assets. As the repos and credit facilities gradually unwind, these toxic assets can now be taken back by the banks and exchanged for good cash. The Fed gets its balance sheet Treasuries and cash back to restore its flexibility to intervene anew.

Favoured private equity and insiders who swap US dollars for equity in the banking system will presumably be aware of the survivor bias being engineered on their behalf. Sovereign wealth funds, investment funds and private equity investors ripped off in the first round of recapitalisation may be willing to come back in once it is clear to them that the next round will benefit from official favouritism. Warren Buffett’s timely stake in Goldman Sachs is clearly linked to his confidence the Paulson Plan will benefit them disproportionately.

A factor which is probably critical but has received little discussion is that literally thousands of Bush administration apparatchiks will need jobs come January, and a fair selection of GOP House and Senate legislators and their aides too. What better way to enahance their CVs in their final months in power than to distribute $700 billion or so in pre-Christmas largesse to the most remunerative employers in the world? And what better way to ensure the corporate largesse is returned to the GOP to win back the White House and Congress in 2012 as the recession fuels public anger?

And then there is a huge arbitrage opportunity as well so that everyone makes money for years to come. According to the conference call, the pricing on offer from the Treasury will be a bit below Level 3 pricing. The toxic assets will be repackaged and resold with a new AAA wrapper, possibly priced well below what the Treasury paid, assuring a huge profit on both immediate liquidation by the banks and ultimate maturity by investors. The Fed gets its cash and Treasuries back; the banks make huge profits; the foreigners and off-shore tax avoiders get disguised ownership of the American financial system; the taxpayer gets ripped off. What’s not to love?

Think back to Fisher’s Theory of Debt Deflation in Great Depressions. Dollars become “bigger” as deflation takes hold because each dollar can buy more assets as assets deflate. That means that as these clowns crash the markets, their $700 billion of liquid cash funnelled to their friends and recycled through the Treasury laundrymat can progressively buy up the rest of the pieces on the gameboard at low discount prices. Game over with those who caused the crash and robbed the bank winning.

Deflation is going to happen – globally. Either we can use the course of deflation to shape healthy economies that will provide growth and employment and productive returns on investment in future, or we can allow deflation to further enrich those miscreants whose irresponsible policies led to the violent financial collapse we are about to experience.

There is a fundamentally healthy economy in America – somewhere underneath all the financial excess and chicanery and all the financial/oil/military/healthcare/developer corruption of local, state and federal politics. It will be a painful and slow process to kill off the metastasising cancerous growths on the economy, but if Americans achieved that, they could embrace a healthier and more productive and more prosperous future.

I would like to believe Americans expressed the courage to change over last weekend when they 25 to 1 rejected an unconstrained and unconditional bailout of Wall Street in favour of cold turkey deleveraging of the economy. I wish I could believe that it mattered in the political calculus, but the result of the House vote on the bill will tell us that.

Fight the survivor bias. It’s not your survival they’re engineering.


Bubbles said...

Simply brilliant both the post and the plan, too bad I'm not a friend of Hank. Keep up the great work LB!

pej said...

As per usual, brilliant analysis.

On the other side, what will happen if the Paulson Plan goes through and he spends this 700,000,000,000 dollars before he leaves the office in 3 months?

If people start to realize what this conman is doing, we might see major changes in the US the same that it happened in France about 2 centuries ago:
Paulson - John Law of the 21st Century? :-)

dearieme said...

There have been two woeful two-term presidencies in a row. Thank Obama that another Clinton presidency has, so far, been avoided. Otherwise, there's not a lot to be cheerful about.

Anonymous said...

Glad to see you caught that LB. Make no mistake, Obama will be the next President of the United States. Unfortunately, look at the list of his major contributors. The pigs are everywhere.


Knute Rife said...

Oh, Paulson's flying monkeys have been at work everywhere. Look at all the Wachovia maneuvering over the last 24 hours, with Wells stepping in and Commonfund being partially frozen. I shan't take up space here; I've already discussed it on my blogs"

The Business Law Spot

The Real Estate Spot

Anonymous said...

Brilliant analysis!

London Banker said...

From Knute's blog:

How does all this tie together? 1) The FDIC can say, without needing Botox to maintain a straight face, "See, the system works. We aren't insolvent. (Yet.);" 2) Instead of three banks (JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America) holding nearly one third of the deposits in the US and Citi weighing in at over 11%, you will have four (Add Wells.) at nearly 40% and none over 10% (Appearance is everything when looking at market concentrations.); 3) The presidents of the 1,000 or so colleges and universities with investments in Commonfund will be calling Congress today screaming, "Do something!"

All this just in time for the House revote on the bailout.


We're beginning to see the strings as the puppetmaster controls the action.

julieng said...

Outstanding post
Let's call this plan market to paulson

julieng said...

check this
Bill Lockyer is a honest guy the state treasury is really struggling
with short term debt, right now...

Rep.Boxer (D-CA) has pointed out this problem recently saying we should act quickly.

Do you think some banks may choose
witch credit line to cut in order to timely pressure in the right direction ?

Anonymous said...

Congressmen were threatened on Monday with the imposition of Martial Law if they failed to pass the bailout bill.

Rep. Brad Sherman (D-OH):

The only way they can pass this bill is by creating and sustaining a panic atmosphere. That atmosphere in not justified. Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill, on Monday, that the sky would fall, the market would fall 2 or 3 thousand points the first day, another couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told that there would be martial law in America if we voted no.

That's what I call fear-mongering. Unjustified. Proven wrong.

We've got a week. We've got two weeks to write a good bill. The only way to pass a bad bill - keep the panic pressure on.

Knute Rife said...

I'm waiting for Fox to announce its new reality series, Survivor: Wall Street, with Paulson and Bernanke as co-hosts.

They were thinking about Survivor: Main Street, but they couldn't get financing and didn't think there were any contestants who would survive the whole season.

Anonymous said...


Thank you for your insight and hard work.

Not for nothing, but the bill just passed. Your last question is answered.

London Banker said...

It passed. It's a done deal. Warren Buffett will add to his fortune, as will Hank Paulson and his partners at Goldman Sachs. The Saudis and the Chinese will own more American banks, one step removed through their private equity partners. The GOP apparatchiks will all find cushy jobs on Wall Street and K Street come January (if martial law isn't imposed before then).

In a way, it's not much of a change from yesterday. The US has been on the path to lawless oligarchy for the past eight years. Today is just one more step down the path.

Here in the UK we are still blind to what is about to happen, believing hopefully in the good faith of our trusted ally across the Atlantic. Denial is still strong.

In a way, it makes me optimistic. The British belief in fair play and loyalty is part of what makes living here wonderful, and part of what binds us together to rebuild after each disaster.

As a good friend wrote to me earlier today, "As for the City, it has survived plague, fire, and more financial crises than you have teeth. It will survive this."

Anonymous said...

If this is all about the friends of Bush why is it the Democrats falling all over themselves to get it passed?

Anonymous said...

"...why is it the Democrats falling all over themselves to get it passed?"

IMHO, because the Dems have mortgage blood all over their hands - Barney Frank's role in pimping for Fannie and Freddie, Chris Dodd's sweet personal mortgages from Countrywide. The Dems want this problem to GO AWAY and they stupidly will try anything, including the $700B looting. I am sick of listening to Nancy "I'm an idiot" Pelosi constantly blaming all of this on Bush. The Dems have just as much blood on their hands as Bush and the Reps.

Frank Miller said...

Interesting read. Now, we even have big banks fighting each other in a break neck race to consolidate which is being done for business survival rather than business gain. Of course, the bailout will not help them much either. They are hurting and when they hurt, we all suffer. Bottom line: everyone should start looking for ways to protect their money. This basically comes down to either taking your money out of the market and cutting discretionary spending or diversifying and investing some overseas. I personally use offshore bank accounts and they have helped me with diversification and asset protection. If you want to read more on why offshore investing is smarter, feel free to visit my website.

Frank Miller

Less Antman said...

"If this is all about the friends of Bush why is it the Democrats falling all over themselves to get it passed?"


The largest contributor to the Obama campaign is Goldman Sachs (yes, the firm Paulson headed before Treasury). The 4th largest is Citibank. The 6th largest is Morgan Chase. See the official Federal Election Commission disclosures:

You can find the same money all over the House and Senate Banking Committee members of both parties. That's why all the leadership supported the bailout, and the opposition came from the reps the investment banks haven't bought (yet).

The polls and blogs indicate that the American people are outraged over this, and the lack of responsiveness of the politicians is not so much an indication of the abandonment of American values by the American public as it is evidence that the oligarchy LB describes includes the leadership of both major American political parties. But reality bites, and their days are numbered as the economic consequences of this travesty become clearer.

So as Churchill complimented us, we'll do the right thing in the end. After exhausting every other possibility.

Peter J. Bolton said...

with respect.

You must consider if your suspicions are correct that the fix has been put in the GS and America's fraud, then:

1. Mr Benanke would have had to come to terms with the fact that his fixing the economy was beyond his comprehension, and expertise or in other words, his economic knowledge in academia, had failed him,

2. He would intentionally aspire to commit a fraudulent act and a conspiratorial role on the World populace.

Mr. Paulson obviously would do such things and get over any misgivings that normally accompany such criminal acts, easily; probably wouldn't even give it a thought but are these two intelligent enough? I doubt it.

I think that what has happened is a power grab along with the cash where both these guys really believe that the FedRes must be the sole global economic Authority.

Of course, we all have our theories but I just don't believe in conspiracies as people in high places are just not smart enough.

Less Antman said...


I'm not sure what we need to believe about Paulson and Bernanke other than that:

(1) They believe in central planning, and

(2) They are skilled at persuasion.

Aren't both of these qualities essentially a requirement to become a high government official?

Of course, government officials don't have the intelligence to run an economy properly, but none of us do. That is why free markets, with all their imperfections, are better for society than central planning.

And because it is impossible for individuals to fully understand and prescribe for an economy, those who are charged with doing so are easily influenced to rationalize actions that happen to also contribute to their personal wealth and/or power. This is a description of common human weaknesses rather than unique evil.

I don't think an organized conspiracy is needed: with all the wrong incentives in place and with the qualities necessary for public office or success in heavily regulated industries practically defining the involved people, the activities of government officials and politically influential corporations are coordinated for no-good as if guided by an invisible hand.

Peter J. Bolton said...

"... the activities of government officials and politically influential corporations are coordinated for no-good as if guided by an invisible hand. "

@ Less Antman

Thank you for your comment. Yes, I agree with that which you say, indeed. My position is that this whole mess is a "leadership" crisis arising out of 'incompetence and stupidity'; "fatal conceit I believe Hayek termed it.

Less Antman said...

I suspect we both believe in Hanlon's Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. :)

Peter J. Bolton said...

Indeed and there are no known limitations to stupidity as it is infinite in its application and not constrained by race, creed, religion, colour and cannot be stopped at National Borders. However, it does appear to improve with age, that is, it become even more stupid.

Maggie Knowles said...

I just cut and pasted several of your comments on the LA Land blog at the LA Times for the photo caption contest of Bush and Paulson shaking hands after the passage of the Big Banks' Bailout Bill,
I'm curious if you have an opinion on this next step by Wall St.:

Wall Street to privatize US infrastructure
Roads, airports on the block as budgets tighten
Fri Aug 1, 2008 12:37pm EDT

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Cash-strapped U.S. state and city governments are likely to sell or lease more highways, bridges, airports and other assets to investors desperate for stable returns after being frazzled by the credit crisis.

The trend is set to pick up speed given worsening budget deficits in state capitals and city halls nationwide.

It will also be welcomed by Wall Street bankers hoping to help create and market so-called "infrastructure" transactions at a time many debt markets remain paralyzed, and after major U.S. stock indexes fell into bear market territory.

"When you are nervous about everything else, you put your money in a toll road," said John Schmidt, a partner at the law firm Mayer Brown LLP in Chicago. "That's the logic of infrastructure. Returns are stable and predictable. You won't get fabulously rich, but you'll get stable cash flow."

The latest enthusiasm for at least partially privatizing infrastructure assets came on July 30 from New York Gov. David Paterson, who is trying to plug a budget deficit caused in part by lower tax revenue as Wall Street retrenches.

"We're just looking at ways to be more efficient and that's why I used the term public-private partnerships -- trying to find some creative solutions," Paterson said. "The reason I'm avoiding taxes is because I think taxes are addictive."

Bankers and others in the industry say there is pent-up demand from dedicated infrastructure funds and public pension funds to invest in hard assets -- perhaps $75 billion to $150 billion of equity capital -- but not enough supply.

"Economic conditions are tough, and are going to be very harsh on the performance of state budgets in 2008 and 2009," said Greg Carey, co-head of infrastructure banking at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). "States are looking for long-term solutions in running businesses. A public-private partnership is a tool in their toolboxes."

A high-water mark came in May, when a group led by Spain's Abertis Infraestructuras SA (ABE.MC: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) agreed to pay $12.8 billion to lease the Pennsylvania Turnpike for 75 years. The total could reach $18.3 billion, including promised improvements. Legislators must approve the lease.

Other transactions have included the $1.8 billion lease of the Chicago Skyway toll road bridge in 2005, and a $3.8 billion lease of the Indiana Toll Road the next year. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley is preparing to lease Midway Airport this year.

For Wall Street, infrastructure can be a bright spot at a time of deep job cuts and expected declines in bonuses.

"We've seen an unprecedented number of headhunters recruiting for positions on the buy and sell sides," said Rob Collins, head of Americas infrastructure banking at Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). "Infrastructure investing can be counter-cyclical to economic trends."

John Ma, the other Goldman infrastructure chief, added: "We're very committed to this space. Our business activity has increased dramatically, even this year."
There's more, if you go to the link above.

Knute Rife said...

I too am a believer in Hanlon's Razor, and in my experience so is LB. I don't think anyone is arguing that this mess was the result of a coordinated conspiracy. I shan't put words in LB's mouth, so I'll stick to my own observations:

1) After Watergate, the US Right realized that control of news media was essential to control of the political process. The Right committed significant resources to this end. US broadcast media now consist of Fox News wannabes and print media of Union Leader wannabes.

2) Federal economic policy since Reagan has consistently favored increasing concentration of wealth.

3) I think Greenspan will go down in history as "Mr. Serial Bubble." I think that on some level and probably most, Greenspan knew he was keeping things aloft with serial bubbles. And I think he believed Bernanke would keep it rolling until he had a chance to write his memoirs and die.

4) There is no way anyone could have coordinated the economic plays to produce this perfect storm. Too big, too chaotic, and no one has had a chance to look at causation in any meaningful way, much less manipulate it (For example, we have yet to analyze how risk-spreading tools ended up feeding back and magnifying risk. But I'm working on it.). All the political and economic efforts had players in common, but the financial system we see coming unglued before us "just growed," largely in a state of absence of mind.

5) While I do not think there was any grand conspiracy, I believe there were plenty of quick-moving opportunists who would see an advantage open up and jump on it. I call it "Day Trader Planning." And I believe Paulson, Bernanke & Co. saw a window open, ginned up the initial bailout package in an all-nighter, then sent out the flying monkeys to beat the panic drum and pull the purse strings on both sides of the aisle. They agreed to anything in the House just to get it through because they knew they could manipulate it at will afterward.

No grand plan. Just experienced players jumping on an advantageous market position. One that leaves the rest of us rudderless with an iron shore hard alee.

Tawal said...

"In a system...where the entire continuity of the...process rests upon credit, a crisis must obviously occur -- a tremendous rush for means of payment -- when credit suddenly ceases and only cash payments have validity. At first glance, therefore, the whole crisis seems to be merely a credit and money crisis. And in fact it is only a question of the convertibility of bills of exchange into money. But the
majority of these bills represent actual sales and purchases, whose extension far beyond the needs of society is, after all, the basis of the whole crisis. At the same time, an enormous quantity of these bills of exchange represents plain swindle, which now reaches the light of day and collapses; furthermore, unsuccessful speculation with the capital of other people; finally, commodity-capital which has depreciated or is completely unsaleable, or returns that can never more be realized again. The entire artificial system of forced expansion of the economy cannot, of course, be remedied by having some bank, like the Bank of England, give to all the swindlers the deficient capital by means of its paper and having it buy up all the depreciated commodities at their old nominal values. Incidentally, everything here appears distorted, since in this paper world, the real price and its real basis appear nowhere, but only bullion, metal coin, notes, bills
of exchange, securities. Particularly in centers where the entire money business of the country is concentrated, like London ...the entire process becomes incomprehensible." -- Karl Marx's Capital, Volume 3, Chapter 30, "Money-Capital and Real Capital", 1867.

The great unwinding is just beginning; we still have a long way to go.

Anonymous said...

London banker wrote:

"What is going on here is a blatant attempt to provide government funds to a select cadre of firms (not all banks) which are chosen to be the survivors feasting off the carcasses of their less fortunate and less well-connected brethren as the downturn intensifies in the years to come."

Nothing new here, it's always been like that more or less visible.

I am amazed how many people believing in "free market", "law state" and similar nonsense!

Anonymous said...

Take some of the vast quantities of the paper that have been issued and a bit of "real" gold & silver.

They are no ones liability and are not pixels stored in insolvent institutions run by dubious men.

The ETF's they created are likely as "questionable" as there ithics-so buy a coin-for your kids sake, it not your own.

acrumb said...

The Automatic Earth is about Europe today. You might find it of interest. As can Europe do better than US is the next question...

xyu said...

exact words of McCain:

There is a fundamentally healthy economy in America – somewhere underneath all the financial excess and chicanery and all the financial/oil/military/healthcare/developer corruption of local, state and federal politics.

Anonymous said...

LB, The boyz at The Citadel are partnering to establish a trading platform for the CDS.



London Banker said...

@ Citori
I saw that. The concentration of ownership of infrastructure in fewer and fewer unreviewable hands, alongside the decline in the rule of law or accountability, means that there may be no "markets" anymore - just rigged casinos with rigged access.

Knute Rife said...


As I've mentioned elsewhere, cronyism is a natural element of human behavior and is only held in check by the rule of law. As the rule of law is replaced by kleptocratic oligarchy, expect regression to the mean and a sharp rise in cronyism.

"Excuse me, are you sure this game is honest?"
"Honest? As honest as the day is long."

Anonymous said...

Ondo Bankr:

As always I appreciate your adroit essays that rise above the caliber of journeyman blog entries.

I'm a writer and I'm about to send 'round an essay that quotes you a bit. If you have an email, I'd like to show you an advance's up to you, but as a courtesy.

take care

Anonymous said...

Via Don Fishback's blog - LB's Survivor Bias in action

What REALLY Happened

I hope my good friend Larry McMillan doesn’t mind me doing this. He has a terrific advisory service — The Options Strategist. In this morning’s hotline, He had this to say about the goings on yesterday:

The selling has reached historic proportions. There literally is a "run on the market," as investors worldwide are dumping stocks. It seems that the major catalyst for this selling is the fact that the newest large banks primarily J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and possibly Morgan Stanley as well — have issued massive margin calls to hedge funds and other professional traders who use these banks as prime brokers. These calls were not issued because of market losses, but more because the banks arbitrarily decided that they wanted their customers to use less leverage. Margin rates as low as 15% for broker dealers were raised to 35%; hedge funds who had been used to operating on high leverage were told that they had to bring accounts up to a much larger percentage of equity. In this illiquid environment, where all manor of exotic securities literally have no bids, the only place to raise the cash to meet margin calls was to sell stock. That is what really set
this market over the edge — as the first notice of these calls were issued on October 2nd and 3rd. There was something of a grace period to meet the calls, but funds realized they weren’t going to be able to meet them
other than by selling stock. There are rumors that the most massive of the calls are due Monday (October 13th). If so, this market could continue to decline through then.

There doesn’t seem to be any reason for this increase in margin. The most benign one is that the banks became overly worried that their prime brokerage customers could cause problems with leverage. A more sinister reason revolves around the fact that the banks issuing the calls will likely wind up the owners of some excellent inventory (relatively illiquid preferreds, bonds, etc., which are being sold at prices well below theoretical value). They are in effect confiscating from their prime brokerage customers.

Alessandro said...

London Banker,

looks like the chosen ones have be named. Survivor bias at its finest.

Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

Why put your money anywhere else?

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